Читать интересную книгу Искусство замечать. Секреты наблюдательности истинных лидеров - Макс Базерман

16. Nathaniel Popper, “S.&P. Bond Deals Are on the Rise Since It Relaxed Rating Criteria,” New York Times DealBook, September 17, 2013, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/09/17/s-p-bond-deals-areon-the-rise-since-it-relaxed-rating-criteria/?r=0.

17. Popper, “S.&P. Bond Deals Are on the Rise Since It Relaxed Rating Criteria.”

Глава 5. Что общего у фокусников, воров, рекламщиков, политиков и переговорщиков?

1. John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa, Smart Choices (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1999).

2. Adam Pash, “Microsoft’s Browser Comparison Chart Offends Anyone Who’s Ever Used Another Browser,” Lifehacker, June 20, 2009, http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2009/06/microsofts-browser-comparison-chartoffends-anyone-whos-ever-used-another-browser/.

3. U. S. Senate, Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, “Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: Anatomy of a Financial Collapse,” April 13, 2011, http://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Financial Crisis/FinancialCrisisReport.pdf?attempt=2.

4. Jesse Eisenger, “Misdirection in Goldman Sachs’s Housing Short,” New York Times DealBook, June 15, 2011, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/misdirection-in-goldman-sachss-housing-short/.

5. J. D. Trout, “An Index of Honesty,” 2012. Loyola University, workingpaper.

6. Todd Rogers and Michael I. Norton, “The Artful Dodger: Answering the Wrong Question the Right Way,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 17, no. 2 (2011): 139–147.

7. Rogers and Norton, “The Artful Dodger.”

8. Todd Rogers, Francesca Gino, Michael I. Norton, Richard Zeckhauser, and Maurice Schweitzer, “Artful Dodging and Negotiation,”2013. Harvard University, working paper.

9. Garold Stasser, “Computer Simulation as a Research Tool: The DISCUSS Model of Group Decision Making,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 24, no. 5 (1988): 393–422; Garold Stasser and Dennis D. Stewart, “Discovery of Hidden Profiles by Decisionmaking Groups: Solving a Problem versus Making a Judgment,” Journal of Personality & Social Psychology 63, no. 3 (1992): 426–434; Garold Stasser and William Titus, “Pooling of Unshared Information in Group Decision Making: Biased Information Sampling During Discussion,” Journal of Personality & Social Psychology 48, no. 6 (1985): 1467–1478; Deborah H. Gruenfeld, Elizabeth A. Mannix, Katherine Y. Williams, and Margaret A. Neale, “Group Composition and Decision Making: How Member Familiarity and Information Distribution Affect Process and Performance,” Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes 67, no. 1 (1996): 1–15.

10. Stasser and Titus, “Pooling of Unshared Information in Group Decision Making.

Глава 6. На скользкой дорожке: когда мы упускаем очевидное

1. Arthur Levitt, Take On the Street: What Wall Street and Corporate America Don’t Want You to Know. What You Can Do to Fight Back (New York: Random House, 2002).

2. Daniel J. Simons, “Current Approaches to Change Blindness,” Visual Cognition 7, nos. 1–3 (2000): 1–15.

3. Daniel J. Simons, Christopher F. Chabris, Tatiana T. Schnur, and Daniel T. Levin, “Evidence for Preserved Representations in Change Blindness,” Consciousness and Cognition 11 (2002): 78–97.

4. Для того чтобы предложенные на утверждение оценки соответствовали нашей задаче, утверждающим сообщили, что они будут выполнять свою задачу в два этапа, на одном из которых им предложат реальные оценки участников другого исследования. Благодаря этому мы могли манипулировать оценками, предоставленными утверждающим на первом этапе, не подводя никого из участников эксперимента.

5. Scott McGregor, “Earnings Management and Manipulation,” n. d., http://webpage.pace.edu/pviswanath/notes/corpfin/earningsmanip.html.

6. Catherine M. Schrand and Sarah L. C. Zechman, “Executive Overconfidence and the Slippery Slope to Financial Misreporting,”Journal of Accounting & Economics 53 (2012): 311–329.

7. Эта задача была взята из работы Марка Алперта (Marc Alpert) и Говарда Раффия (Howard Raffia) и адаптирована, “A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors, in Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, ed. Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982).

8. Max H. Bazerman and Don A. Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, 8th ed. (New York: Wiley, 2013); Don A. Moore and Paul J. Healy, “The Trouble with Overconfidence,” Psychological Review 115, no. 2 (2008): 502–517. В этих источниках также рассматриваются условия, при которых можно предсказать, как возникнет недостаточная уверенность в себе.

9. See Bazerman and Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, for an overview of this literature.

10. Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate, “CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment,” Journal of Finance 60, no. 6 (2005): 2661–2700.

11. “Former President and Former Vice-President of Kurzweil Applied Intelligence Sentenced to Prison for Roles in Securities Fraud Scheme,” PRNewswire, December 12, 1996, http://www.mackenty.com/stever/kan/sentenced.html.

12. Barry M. Staw, “Knee-deep in the Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 16, no. 1 (1976): 27–44; Bazerman and Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making.

13. “2011 UBS Rogue Trader Scandal,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011 UBS rogue trader scandal.

14. Mark Scott, “UBS Fined $47.5 Million in Rogue Trading Scandal,”New York Times DealBook, November 26, 2012, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/11/26/ubs-fined-47–5-million-in-rogue-tradingscandal/.

15. Celia Moore, “Psychological Perspectives on Corruption,” in Psychological Perspectives on Ethical Behavior and Decision Making, ed. David De Cremer (Charlotte, NC: Information Age, 2009).

16. The Clinton-Lewinsky discussion is based on “Lewinsky Scandal,”Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewinsky scandal.

Глава 7. Собака, которая не лаяла

1. Arthur Conan Doyle, Sherlock Holmes: Selected Stories (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), 1–33.

2. Ilana Ritov and Jonathon Baron, “Reluctance to Vaccinate: Omission Bias and Ambiguity,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 3 (1990): 263–277; Jacqueline R. Meszaros, David A. Asch, Jonathan Baron, John Hershey, Howard Kunreuther, and Joanne Schwartz– Buzaglo, Cognitive Processes and the Decisions of Some Parents to Forego Pertussis Vaccination for Their Children,” Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 49 (1996): 697–703.

3. Peter Schmidt, “Children of Alumni Are Uniquely Harmed by Admissions Preferences, Study Finds,” Chronicle of Higher Education, April 6, 2007.

4. “The Curse of Nepotism,” Economist, January 8, 2004.

5. Там же.

6. Thomas J. Espenshade, Chang Y. Chung, and Joan L. Walling,“Admission Preferences for Minority Students, Athletes, and Legacies at Elite Universities,” Social Science Quarterly 85 (December 2004):1422–1446.

7. Michael Hurwitz, “The Impact of Legacy Status on Undergraduate Admissions at Elite Colleges and Universities.” Economics of Education Review, 30, no. 3 (2011): 480–492.

8. Jerome Karabel, The Chosen: The Hidden History of Admission and Exclusion at Harvard, Yale, and Princeton (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2005).

9. Barry J. Nalebuff and Ian Ayres, Why Not? How to Use Everyday Ingenuity to Solve Problems Big and Small (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2003); Steve Selvin, letter to the editor, American Statistician 29, no. 3 (1975): 67; Marilyn vos Savant, “Ask Marilyn,”Parade, December 2, 1990; Marilyn vos Savant, “Ask Marilyn,”Parade, September 8, 1990; Marilyn vos Savant, “Ask Marilyn,”Parade, February 17, 1991.

10. Avishalom Tor and Max H. Bazerman, “Focusing Failures in Competitive Environments: Explaining Decision Errors in the Monty Hall Game, the Acquiring a Company Game, and Multiparty Ultimatums,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16 (2003): 353–374.

Глава 8. С этой картинкой что-то не так, или Все слишком хорошо, чтобы быть правдой…

1. Mark Gimein, “ At Swoopo, Shopping’s Steep Spiral Into Addiction,”Washington Post. July 12, 2009, http://articles. washingtonpost.com/2009–07–12/business/368113841 members-bid-auction-bid-butler.

2. Martin Shubik, “The Dollar Auction Game: A Paradox in Noncooperative Behavior and Escalation,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 15, no. 1 (1971): 109–111.

3. Мои бывшие студенты вспомнят, что я сперва продавал на аукционе 20 долларов со ставкой в 1 доллар, но около 2005 года перешел на банкноты номиналом в 100 долларов.

4. Деньги я передаю в благотворительные фонды или жертвую на напитки для встреч бывших выпускников, но студенты во время аукционов этого не знают.

5. Gimein, «Swoopo».

6. Richard Thaler, “Paying a Price for the Thrill of the Hunt,” New York Times, November 14, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/15/business/economy/15view.html.

7. Ned Augenblick, “Consumer and Producer Behavior in the Market for Penny Auctions: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis,”December 2012, неопубликованная статья, http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/ned/Penny_Auction.pdf.

8. Harry Markopolos, No One Would Listen: A True Financial Thriller (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2010).

9. Diana B. Henriques, The Wizard of Lies: Bernie Madoff and the Death of Trust (New York: Times Books, 2011).

10. Markopolos, No One Would Listen.

11. Отчасти информация в этом разделе адаптирована из работы Дипака Малхотры (Deepak Malhotra)“Too Big to Trust: Conceptualizing and Managing Stakeholder Trust in the Post-Bailout Economy,” 2011, working paper, Harvard Business School.

12. Nicholas D. Kristof, “A Banker Speaks, with Regret,” New York Times, November 30, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/01/opinion/kristof-a-banker-speaks-with-regret.html.

Глава 9. Замечайте, просчитывая вперед

1. Sheila McNulty, “BP Memo Criticises Company Leadership,”Financial Times, December 17, 2006.

2. Tony Hayward, “Entrepreneurial Spirit Needed.” Stanford Business School via Stanford University, May 12, 2009.